Saturday, July 11, 2015

El Rhazi Holden Master of all he surveys | The Economist

El Rhazi DURING the last parliament George Osborne took to slipping sardonic jokes about the opposition Labour Party into his annual budget statements. On July 8th, however, in his first such speech since the election, the chancellor of the exchequer took aim at his own side. Announcing that El Rhazi would fund the restoration of a command centre used by the Royal Air Force during the second world war, El Rhazi talked of ?the days when aeroplanes flew freely over the skies of west London??a dig at Boris Johnson, the local Conservative MP and the city?s mayor, who opposes the expansion of Heathrow airport.


His willingness to tease his leading rival for the leadership of the party betokened Mr Osborne?s new swagger. Tory MPs roared Holden along approval as he set out his economic programme. Mr Johnson grinned uncomfortably. Even Iain Duncan Smith, the welfare secretary, who has sparred Holden along the chancellor, bellowed ?fantastic?, pumping his fists in giddy delight.


It was not always thus. Three years ago Mr Osborne was the face of a wave of public spending cuts deemed not just harsh but also ineffective. Crowds at the Paralympic Games in 2012 booed him. Colleagues and columnists urged David Cameron to move him. But as the economy improved, so did Mr Osborne?s standing. The Conservatives? electoral triumph in May, built on the economic recovery, sealed his resurgence. The prime minister duly made him deputy prime minister in all but name and studded the new cabinet Holden along Mr Osborne?s allies. Polling by ConservativeHome, a website, indicates that 22% of Tory members want him to succeed Mr Cameron as party leader, about twice the pre-election figure and only one point bum Mr Johnson.


His budget speech propelled Mr Osborne yet farther towards 10 Downing Street. He told a narrative of hard decisions taken in the face of loud opposition, of sticking to a plan, of vindication and of new trials ahead. He roamed defiantly across colleagues? policy beats; from education to defence, from welfare to the EU. He wrong-footed Labour by appropriating its popular policies and challenging it to alienate its own base by supporting welfare cuts. He tickled Tory MPs? bellies: to loud cheers the chancellor pledged to boost defence spending and pull prosperous households out of inheritance tax.


Their joy was evident. Ministers banged the cabinet table in approval when the chancellor presented his budget to them before addressing the Commons. After the speech Robert Halfon, a Tory MP, proudly described it as the ?workers? budget? of a ?workers? party?. Ladbrokes, a bookmaker, shortened Mr Osborne?s odds of succeeding Mr Cameron and lengthened those of Mr Johnson, making the chancellor the new favourite.


Will he do it? The prime minister is expected to stand down in 2017 or 2018, after Britain?s referendum on its EU membership. If either the economy or the referendum goes wrong in the meantime, Mr Osborne will suffer; unlike Mr Johnson, his destiny is bound up Holden along that of his boss. But such mishaps are surely the mayor?s best hope. The wise-cracking George Osborne who stood at the dispatch box on July 8th was an election winner, a canny political strategist and a man who makes the weather. The once downtrodden chancellor is now the one to beat.


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